SJB | Korschenbroich, 22.09.2022.
Der August war ein schwacher Monat für globale Aktien. In der Konsequenz gab der DNB Disruptive Opportunities (WKN A2PS58, ISIN LU2061961145) um 1,66 Prozent nach und entwickelte sich damit klar besser als die Benchmark MSCI World, die 4,33 Prozent verlor. Der Fonds investiert hauptsächlich in Aktien von Unternehmen, die im Bereich bahnbrechender Technologien tätig sind und von den disruptiven Entwicklungen der Zukunft profitieren – derzeit offenbar ein erfolgversprechender Ansatz. FondsManager Audun Wickstrand Iversen analysiert in seinem Monatsbericht für August die Marktgeschehnisse im Detail und fasst für alle FondsInvestoren der SJB Strategie Surplus die wichtigsten Entwicklungen aus den Sektoren Kommunikation, Informationstechnologie, Gesundheitswesen, erneuerbare Energien und Energieeffizienz zusammen.
Marktkommentar
August has been yet a poor month for stocks. Global equity markets came under downward pressure around mid-August after the strong rebound of the previous month. The uncertainty about the outlook remains high, especially in Europe due to war and the energy crisis. Recession risks in Europe remain elevated, as shown by the weakness of the euro, which dropped to parity with the US dollar, and by the Flash Eurozone composite PMI.
In the US, employment data was surprisingly strong as well as inflation seems to have passed its peak as CPI increased 8.5% YoY in July, down from 9.1% in June. However – this is still too high. The Inflation Reduction Act signed into law last month providing incentives for decarbonizing, including rebates and tax credits for electric vehicle purchases, home-electrification upgrades, heat pumps and solar panels.
Fondskommentar
In August, the fund s performance was -1.66% (USD), while the benchmark, MSCI World, showed a performance of -4.33% (USD). The fund invests in five investment categories globally. (1) Connectivity, (2) Urban Mobility, (3) Machine Revolution, (4) Demography, and (5) Green Deal. The fund invests broadly on the world’s largest stock exchanges and industries in search of disruptive opportunities arising from changes in technology, regulations, and consumer behavior. In August, we have made some changes to the portfolio. In the Connectivity (1) category, we sold our position in Unity Software (US) after strong performance and a bid situation. Within Urban Mobility (2), we reduced our position in Uber Technologies (US), after strong Q2 results and performance. We increased our position in GM due to their progress on Robotaxi (Cruise). We also slightly increased our position in Tesla (US), which is actively developing their autonomous driving technology by improving software on their vehicles every week. In the Green Deal (5) category, we have been increased our position in solar names after the final decisions on climate regulation in US (First Solar (US), Enphase (US) and Sunrun (US). We have sold out of all companies in China due to renewed worries of regulation and delisting in US. We also own established companies in areas of structural growth (Paypal, Keyence, Fanuc, Emerson, IGO, GXO), smaller companies that may face technological and market breakthroughs with an assumed short path to cash flow (Agilyx, Nanoform, Salmon Evolution, Idex Biometrics) and companies with future disruptive business models we have great faith in (several smaller companies). The common denominator is that we believe that they are all part of the structural growth that the disruptive opportunities create.
Ausblick
Our main view is that US inflation has passed its peak and will continue to fall during this fall. We believe we are now entering a period where the broad market will gradually start focusing on a deteriorating economy, falling inflation rates, and falling profit margins for companies. While the economic data in August was mixed, the Fed s hawkish message from Jackson Hole amid ongoing risks to the growth outlook hurt both equity and bond markets. Concerns about the impact of the energy crisis in Europe will also continue to weigh on returns. Summing up, we expect volatility in the short term before we can see a potential soft landing.
