Hans Peter Portner, FondsManager des Pictet Global Megatrend Selection
Im Mai herrschte über weite Bereiche der Finanzmärkte eine freundliche Stimmung vor: Hierzu trugen die gute Liquiditätsversorgung durch die Zentralbanken sowie die konjunkturelle Aufwärtsentwicklung der europäischen und US-Volkswirtschaften bei. Der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) entwickelte sich leicht schwächer als der MSCI World, generierte seit Jahresbeginn aber eine positive Performance von +7,96 Prozent. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht für Mai Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur des auf globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit und Saubere Energien fokussierten Fonds. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom Pictet-FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
The sun shone on most asset classes during May. Riskier assets are being underpinned by central bank liquidity, not least from the Fed and a largely event-free reopening of European and US economies. But fears that the central bank will end up being slow to respond to rising inflation is weighing on the US dollar. Gold was the big winner in the month, lifted 7.7% by inflation concerns. But oil and other commodities also gained ground as investors sought physical stores of value to hedge against the risk that the recent pickup in inflation turns out not to be as transitory as central bankers believe it to be. The dollar lost 1.4% on the month. By contrast equities gained further ground, up 1% in local currency terms during May, for an 11% gain since the start of the year. Bonds fared relatively well too, up modestly after suffering losses during recent months. In equities, there was a slight shift in focus away from the US to Europe and emerging markets beyond Asia, both of which are lagging the US in the post-Covid recovery cycle. Stocks in the Euro-region gained by more than 2% on the month while Swiss stocks were up by over 3%. Commodity-related equity sectors did well, with energy stocks up by almost 5% and materials up some 3%. Energy is now the strongest sector year-to-date, up more than 24%, financials is a close second with a 22% gain in 2021 so far.
Performance analysis
The strategy underperformed the MSCI ACWI (1.56% in USD) during the month. Top contributors were Premium Brands, Water, Nutrition, Health, Security and Timber while Human, Biotech, Digital, Clean Energy, Robotics and SmartCity detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
Although economic conditions remain buoyant, our business cycle gauges suggest GDP growth will slow over the second half of the year; inflationary pressures, meanwhile, will linger. The provision of monetary stimulus from central banks remains sufficient to underpin riskier asset classes. Looking ahead, it is unclear how long markets will be able count on support from central banks. The Peoples Bank of China has already tightened the monetary reins while the Fed, contending with a flood of fiscal stimulus, excess cash in the financial system and pent up consumer demand, will soon face a choice between withdrawing support early, but modestly, or later this year/early 2022, but more aggressively. Nevertheless, the scope for a decline in stock markets remains limited as investor surveys show investors have already scaled back on their holdings of stocks. Corporate profits have been extremely robust, with stellar first quarter results – profits among S&P 500 companies jumped some 50%, roughly double the expected rate. It does make the current market environment shift more towards stock-picking versus market beta. This is where a thematic focus may help. Growth that is less dependent on economic cycles and where the future earnings power of the companies is not fully reflected in current valuation.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Since December, the strategy includes an allocation to Human, in addition to the previously included Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
