SJB | Korschenbroich, 04.10.2022.
Die globalen Aktienmärkte konnten im August in der ersten Monatshälfte Kursgewinne verzeichnen, beendeten den Handelsmonat aber letztlich in den roten Zahlen. Der Optimismus über einen bereits erreichten Höchststand in der US-Inflation wich angesichts der Ankündigung weiterer kräftiger Zinsanhebungen durch US-Fed-Präsident Jerome Powell einer angeschlagenen Marktstimmung. In diesem belastenden Marktumfeld entwickelte sich der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) zwar besser als seine Benchmark MSCI World, verzeichnete aber eine negative Wertentwicklung von -1,58 Prozent in Euro. FondsManager Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur des auf globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit und Erneuerbare Energien fokussierten Fonds und gibt Investoren einen Marktausblick.
Market review
August proved a month of two halves as global equities reversed initial gains to finish firmly in the red. The latest weakness takes year-to-date losses for the MSCI World Index to 14 % in local currency terms. Investors initially welcomed signs of a peak in US inflation, but optimism over the possibility of a soft landing for the world’s largest economy faded in the face of weak and a hawkish central bank. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it would “take some time” to restore price stability and the process would “require a sustained period of below-trend growth”. The S&P 500 finished the month 4% lower. Equity markets in the eurozone, the UK and Switzerland also lost ground. In contrast, emerging market stocks gained over 1% in local currency terms, boosted by Latin America. Japan also managed a positive month. Globally, losses were seen both for small and large-cap stocks as well as for both growth and value styles. Energy was the only sector which managed to post gains. The prospect of continued rate hikes also weighed on bond markets. German Bund yields posted their biggest monthly increase in around three decades in the face of a new record high in euro zone inflation. Yields on 2-year US Treasuries scaled 15-year highs above 3.5%, as markets moved to price in more interest rate hikes. The dollar hit a twodecade high versus a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
Performance analysis
The strategy outperformed the MSCI ACWI, which has returned -3.68% in USD. Top contributors were Biotech, Digital, Timber and Water while Robotics, Human, Health, Security, Clean Energy, Premium Brands, SmartCity and Nutrition detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
The surge in stock markets that accompanied the summer heatwave looks over for now. Oil prices are rising again. And even if inflation has peaked, it is looking sticky. Business and consumer surveys, meanwhile, are turning gloomy even though central banks are likely to ignore these until they feed through to hard economic data. To turn more aggressive on riskier parts of the market, we would look for a steeper yield curve, suggesting stronger economic growth down the line. Second, a bottoming of downward revisions to corporate earnings forecasts and to leading economic indicators. Third, technical indicators giving unequivocal ‘oversold’ signals for equities, and cyclical stocks in particular. And finally that the currency monetary tightening cycle is sufficient to get inflation back to central banks’ targets. It is not all negative: US survey evidence and hard data increasingly look at odds with one another, with retail sales remaining resilient, unemployment at 50-year lows and residential investment as a percentage of GDP hitting new postglobal financial crisis highs. Speculative positioning in S&P 500 stocks is close to a record short. But while surveys show continued bearishness, that’s declining, and flows into equity funds have turned positive again. In Europe, the recent surge in European gas and electricity prices is a particular worry.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Human, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
