Tagesarchiv

 ECP | Luxemburg, 23.04.2021 Rising commodity prices leading to lower profit margins is the simple top-down assessment. In this case, this view may be too simplistic as the impact on corporate earnings is different by sector and by company. It largely depends on whether the companies can pass through the rising costs to its clients, the market position of the companies and of course the industry we look at. To illustrate our point, we choose in our European portfolio three …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 16.04.2021 I recently came across extensive comments from so-called growth investors making the point that the reflation trade had created a unjustified rally in value stocks that were of low fundamental quality. In the long run however quality had always prevailed independently of valuation and the recent recovery in value would prove temporary. Growth investors should therefore simply sit out their current underperformance and of course stay invested in the growth funds.

 ECP | Luxemburg, 19.03.2021 As an investor we have grown accustomed to the drama that Mr. Market throws at us every now and then. Last year in particular was especially amusing from the point of view of price action in the stock markets. Out of numerous such phenomenon Tesla in particular caught our attention, as we being the shareholders of Volkswagen (via Porsche) we are always on lookout to ensure we don’t end up holding a company that is about …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 12.03.2021 As is the standard practice at ECP after release of the company’s earnings, we review and update our fair values, snippets of which are shown hereunder. This week we thought of revisiting Friday Morning Coffee Nr. 59 and Nr. 130 that we wrote in May 2019 and November 2020. In those two short notes we highlighted our contrarian approach of going against the then established theme against clothing retail and invested in Prada. Back then we mentioned …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 05.03.2021 We thought it would be a good opportunity to speak about legendary Warren Buffett and his Holding company Berkshire Hathaway just a few days after the publication of his annual letter. By reading this year’s annual letter and some older ones, one can only be impressed by his fantastic track record over the years. Berkshire has delivered a compounded annual performance of 20% a year from 1965 to 2020 Vs. 10,2% for the S&P500 !

Eine weiterentwickelte Value-Strategie erzielt laut einer Studie von Starcapital eine Outperformance von 3,3 Prozentpunkten bei deutlich geringerem Rückschlagsrisiko. Einer der Gründe: Reine KGV- und KBV-Betrachtungen klammern den wachsenden Dienstleistungssektor aus. Die jüngsten Erfolge von Value-Strategien können nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, dass die schwache Wertentwicklung klassischer Value-Strategien seit inzwischen mehr als zehn Jahren anhält. Bei Starcapital glaubt man, jetzt die Ursache dafür gefunden zu haben.

 ECP | Luxemburg, 18.02.2021 This was the week of 13F filings. The 13F are the quarterly reports filed with the SEC by the US based institutional investors. Just like quarterly earnings release by companies, the 13F filings are also closely watched and followed amongst the investor community. Amid the barrage of newsfeed, we came across the news of Berkshire Hathaway, investment vehicle of Mr. Warren Buffett, building 33% stake in Davita Inc. Now, it seems that it is certainly not …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 11.02.2021 In a recent interview with YouTuber Kiana Danial, the renowned value investor Guy Spier was asked to give an example of one of his core holdings in his portfolio. He mentioned Nestlé as one of these compounding businesses whose brands are household names that would be appreciated by the consumer for many years to come, therefore generating strong earning power for the company that is compounding over time.

 ECP | Luxemburg, 28.01.2021 The stock-market performance of insurers has been historically tightly linked to the evolution of corporate spreads. In case of economic stress, spreads increase as investors want to be remunerated for the increased risk of corporate defaults. This is bad news for insurers who hold large bond portfolios and are heavily invested in corporates in their quest for yield. So it is not as surprise that the European insurance sector underperformed during the pandemic. But hold on …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 22.01.2021 In the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) held in the 4th quarter of last year, an interesting theme came to fore on the long term outlook on the crude oil wherein the participant observed an equal split between the two camps; the ones who believe that the world has already passed the peak oil and the era of the oil market growth is already over versus the ones who see the peak oil in 2030 as mentioned …

Der Citywire-Leiter der DACH-Region, Andreas Dagasan, analysiert in diesem Artikel die Rotation von Anleihen in Aktien und von Growth in Value und ihre möglichen Nebenwirkungen. Eine Goldman-Sachs-Analyse der Mittelflüsse zwischen Anlageklassen zeigt, dass Investoren in der letzten Woche weiter aus sicheren in risikoreichere Assets umgeschichtet haben. Vermögen floss insbesondere aus Geldmarktfonds in Aktien. Damit setzt sich ein bestehender Trend fort.

 ECP | Luxemburg, 15.01.2021 Back in November, during our brain storming session we came across an interesting investment opportunity in a very challenged sector; shipping. The sector is favourite amongst the distressed value players due to its extremes in magnitude and duration of cyclicality, capital intensity and fragmentation. True to its nature the shipping sector does entice investors every now and then, but by the time analysts complete their due diligence and are done with writing their report, the bubble …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 08.01.2021 Just a couple of days into the new year, we already celebrated this week in Washington the premiere of a new event, called Insurrection Day under the motto : “How to embarrass the biggest Democracy in the World”. We believe this was a sad day not only for the US but also a sad day for all our democracies. “Today is a painful reminder that democracy is fragile.” were the words of president elect Joe Biden …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 20.11.2020 A lot is currently being written about the rotation from momentum/growth stocks into value stocks. To us, the extreme value underperformance compared to growth we have seen over the last years can be compared to a rubber band. The more it stretches, the heftier will be the reversal as the situation is more and more unsustainable. November has shown how stretched the rubber band has become during the Coivd-19 crisis. The trigger of a change in …

Der Fondsmanager hält ein Value-Comeback für möglich, ist aber bisher ausgeglichen positioniert. Thomas Romig, Manager des Assenagon I Multi Asset Conservative, setzt für das kommende Jahr unter anderem auf russische Aktien. „Die Währung ist unterbewertet, Aktien im Öl-Bereich haben wegen der schwachen Nachfrage schlecht performt, und es könnte sein, dass es mit der Biden-Regierung zu einer politischen Annäherung mit Russland kommt“, sagt Romig im Gespräch mit Citywire Deutschland. Auch lateinamerikanische, osteuropäische und Frontier-Markets-Aktien könnten sich als Opportunitäten erweisen – allesamt Märkte, die …