SJB | Korschenbroich, 13.01.2023.
Der MSCI World beendete ein schwaches Börsenjahr mit neuen Kursverlusten von 4,34 Prozent im Dezember. Für Pessimismus bei den Anlegern sorgte die Aussage der Fed, die Inflation weiter entschlossen zu bekämpfen, und die auf eine Beschleunigung der Rezessionsrisiken hinweisenden Wirtschaftsdaten. In angeschlagenen Märkten generierte der DNB Disruptive Opportunities (WKN A2PS58, ISIN LU2061961145) eine Performance von -7,39 Prozent. Der Fonds investiert hauptsächlich in Aktien von Unternehmen, die im Bereich bahnbrechender Technologien tätig sind und von den disruptiven Entwicklungen der Zukunft profitieren. FondsManager Audun Wickstrand Iversen analysiert in seinem Monatsbericht für Dezember die Marktgeschehnisse im Detail und fasst für alle FondsInvestoren der SJB Strategie Surplus die wichtigsten Entwicklungen aus den Sektoren Kommunikation, Informationstechnologie, Gesundheitswesen, erneuerbare Energien und Energieeffizienz zusammen.
Marktkommentar
The MSCI World Index ended down 4.34% in December. Summing up the year 2022, the index fell by 19.46%, which represents the weakest annual performance since the global financial crisis in 2008 when the index was down by 42%. The Fed continues to fight inflation and indicated no rate cuts until 2024, intensifying the recession risk the market has been debating for quite some time now. China has started their reopening process after a long period of lockdowns in connection with the pandemic. European gas prices dropped significantly in December but recovered after cuts from Russian supply stemming from EU sanctions. During 2022, Europe was down 11.9% and the US market was down 20.8%.
In December, the fund had a performance of -7.39% (USD). The fund invests in five investment categories globally. (1) Connectivity, (2) Urban Mobility, (3) Machine Revolution, (4) Demography, and (5) Green Deal. The fund invests broadly in the world’s largest stock exchanges and industries in search of disruptive opportunities arising from changes in technology, regulations, and consumer behavior. We made minor adjustments to the portfolio. We bought Meta (3%) after the correction in November and have now sold the position to fund adjustments in companies with strong fundamentals with potential for 2023. Strong fundamentals is based on a disruptive business model combined with low valuation (e.g Archer, ADS Tech, Stratasys) and company specific triggers in 2023 (e.g. ASTS, Rocket Lab, Boliden, SPIRE, Kornit).
Fondskommentar
The energy crisis remains a key risk to growth in Europe. Europe has now landed on the decision to introduce a price cap on gas. We believe that most of Europe is already in a recession and the risk of seeing one in the US late this year is still present. The market has been talking about this recession during most of 2022, and it is no surprise for the market. Sell-side analyst still provide too high estimates on companies, but buy-side analyst og sell-side strategists have been cutting the estimates since summer. This will not be a big surprise for the market. However, it will create volatility in the market and for single companies. Downside risk on the market for us is connected to a more resilient inflation (and higher rate) or a systematic failure in the debt market (debt of Italy etc).
Ausblick
We are optimistic in our belief that markets are bottoming and that 2023 will be a year with positive returns. We believe the DNB Disruptive portfolio is well positioned for benefitting in this scenario. There are no indications of efficiency enhancing innovations becoming less important to the global economy in the longer term. The growth of AI, 5G, Robots, Autonomous Vehicles, eVOTL, ecommerce, recycling, EVs etc. continued in 2022, and it will continue in 2023 and beyond.
