Die Weltwirtschaft wird immer stärker von globalen Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit, dem Infrastrukturausbau sowie dem Schwenk zu Erneuerbaren Energien geprägt. Die hierauf spezialisierten Unternehmen innerhalb des Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) können langfristig mit überdurchschnittlichen Kursgewinnen aufwarten. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner von Pictet Asset Management liefert in seinem Monatsbericht für April Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur und die aktuelle Marktlage. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
Global equities rallied in April, with the MSCI World Index reaching record highs. The gains were driven by cyclical, high beta sectors. Financials, IT, communication services and consumer discretionary sectors outperformed over the month, in contrast, healthcare and real estate underperformed, ending April in the red. The energy sector eked out a small gain despite a rally in the price of oil. One reason for the breakdown of the traditional high correlation between energy stocks and oil itself could be the fact that the oil price gains are in part due to geopolitical tensions, rather than to growing demand for crude. The forward curve for crude oil points to a fall in prices in the future; until this changes a material re-rating in energy stocks is unlikely.
Performance analysis
The strategy was in line with the MSCI World (3.6% in USD) during the month. Top contributors were Robotics , Clean Energy, Digital, Security, Premium Brands and Smart City while Health, Timber, Nutrition and Water detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
Investors have transitioned from glass half empty to glass half full. Even though investors were fearful of trade tensions between the US and China, the Fed’s monetary tightening, a hard Brexit and a Chinese slowdown just a few months ago, we have seen positive newsflow on all four topics. This has supported sentiment, and the market has rebounded as a result. We still remain below the peaks of last year, though, and positioning remains light. Global EPS forecasts for 2019 have been lowered, reducing the risk for the remainder of the year. Despite these lowered expectations and buoyant markets, valuations remain undemanding, and we continue to see plenty of upside. Given receding trade tensions, a more gradual monetary tightening, the potential for a rebound in Chinese growth, coupled with attractive valuations and recently lowered expectations, we remain modestly optimistic on global equity markets.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Water, Timber, Robotics, Premium Brands, Nutrition, Health, Digital, Security, Smart City and Clean Energy.
