SJB | Korschenbroich, 06.07.2022.
Die globalen Aktienmärkte beendeten den Mai mit leichten Kursverlusten, nachdem es Käufe zum Monatsende aufgrund der Entwicklung der US-Inflationsdaten und verminderter Covid-Restriktionen in China gegeben hatte. Zuvor hatte jedoch ein historischer Ausverkauf globaler Aktien mit einem Kursrückgang um 17 Prozent seit Januar stattgefunden – die schwächste Entwicklung seit Jahresauftakt für über 100 Jahre. In diesem angespannten Marktumfeld entwickelte sich der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) schwächer als seine Benchmark MSCI World und verzeichnete eine Performance von -5,66 Prozent in Euro. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht alle Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur des auf globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit und Erneuerbare Energien fokussierten Fonds.
Market review
Equities ended May nearly flat after month-end buying was spurred by data showing a peak in US inflation and an easing of Covid restrictions in China. The relief rally followed a historic selloff in global stocks that saw them fall 17% since January, marking the worst start of the year for the asset class in 100 years. Signs of slower economic growth in the world’s biggest economy reduced inflation fears and fanned expectations that the Federal Reserve may become less aggressive in its monetary tightening campaign. European and Japanese stocks outperformed their US counterparts, where a strong dollar and high valuation represented headwinds. Commodity-heavy Latin American stocks were the best performers, with a gain of nearly 4% in local currency terms. Energy stocks continued to outshine the rest of the market, with the sector adding nearly 12% in local currency terms, bringing year-to-date gains to as much as 38%. Businesses that are sensitive to economic cycles, such as real estate and consumer discretionary, fell more than 3%. Utilities attracted defensive inflows to rise more than 2%. Global bonds ended the month slightly down as the asset class stabilized towards the month end after registering the worst-ever start to the year, with a year-to-date loss of 7%.
Performance analysis
The strategy underperformed the MSCI ACWI, which returned 0.12% in USD. Top contributors were Clean Energy, Timber, Robotics, Health, Water, Nutrition and Biotech while Premium Brands, Security, SmartCity, Digital and Human detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
A pernicious combination of rising real interest rates and worries about how the global economy will cope with a shortage of fossil fuels and other commodities weighs on the outlook for equities. Rising input costs are already biting into profit margins while companies’ own guidance on earnings prospects is turning increasingly negative. Cyclical stocks’ premium relative to defensive sectors is still only at neutral levels, suggesting a “soft landing” for the economy or a swift return to trend GDP growth, neither of which is a certainty. Companies with high ”quality” attributes in defensive sectors such as healthcare are well-placed to defend their margins. As cyclical growth slows down, companies with thematic tailwinds and therefore more secular growth offer a diverging growth advantage. Another bright spot are valuations, which have come down significantly and now screen as attractive, especially in Europe and Asia.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Human, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
