Im Juli herrschte an den globalen Aktienmärkten überwiegend eine freundliche Stimmung vor: Der MSCI World legte um +0,70 Prozent zu, US-Aktien konnten sich um 2,4 Prozent verbessern. Im scharfen Kontrast hierzu stand die schwache Kursentwicklung chinesischer Titel, die im Zuge neuer Regulierungsbestrebungen der Regierung um 7,5 Prozent nachgaben. Der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) entwickelte sich etwas besser als der MSCI World und kann seit Jahresbeginn bereits auf eine positive Performance von +13,94 Prozent zurückblicken. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht für Juli alle Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur des auf globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit und Saubere Energien fokussierten Fonds. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom Pictet-FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
Equities performed reasonably well, picking up 0.7% on the month, led by the US, up 2.4%. Chinese stocks, however, did suffer from heavy losses as Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on industries, such as tech, education, and property, raised concerns about future profitability and could further reduce valuations for high-growth sectors. This dragged down emerging market assets, though EM Asia stocks took the brunt of the losses, down some 7.5%. Japan also suffered, though concerns about a serious wave of Covid also played its part, knocking more than 2% off the market. Growth-oriented stocks far outperformed value on the month, returns from these two factors are now neck and neck for the year: value was a big winner for the first few months of 2021. Profit-taking knocked back energy stocks, losing more than 5% on the month, though they were still up more than 20% on the start of the year. Materials, health care and IT all performed well. July was big for global bonds, which ended up some 1.4% during the month, helping them to pare back some of their year-to-date losses. These gains were nearly across the board, with US Treasury bonds up 1.3%, while gilts picked up nearly 3% in local currency terms. Gold was up 3.3% on the month, though the yellow metal’s overall performance since the start of the year has been lackluster. Oil was up again as were commodities, generally.
Performance analysis
The strategy slightly outperformed the MSCI ACWI, which has returned +0.69% in USD. Top contributors were Water, Security, Premium Brands, Health, SmartCity and Nutrition while Digital, Biotech, Human, Robotics, Timber and Clean Energy detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
The global economy is powering ahead despite the resurgence of Covid-19 infections, while inflationary pressures continue to build, particularly in the US where we are starting to see some signs that its expansion is moderating. The US Federal Reserve is edging into the first stages of a tightening cycle. However, we expect the tightening journey to be a slow one from one of the loosest of all the world’s major economies. Prospects for European stocks are improving as a smooth vaccine roll-out allows the lifting of lockdown measures. European purchasing manager indices remain buoyant and retail sales have recovered above the pre-pandemic trend. The Chinese government’s surprise ban on for-profit after-school tutoring has raised concerns about an intensification of Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns. The latest intervention comes on the heels of cybersecurity investigations of the ride hailing app DiDi and other e-commerce companies, increased scrutiny of overseas IPOs and the imposition of fines and restrictions on some of China’s largest e-commerce firms. Such moves would add a permanent ‘risk premium’ to Chinese stocks, but they should not fundamentally change China’s growth model or the broader investment case.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Since December, the strategy includes an allocation to Human, in addition to the previously included Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
