Die globalen Aktienmärkte zeigten sich im Juli weiterhin stark, da Stimulus-Massnahmen der Zentralbanken sowie Konjunkturprogramme zahlreicher Regierungen für eine gute Stimmung sorgten. So setzte sich bei den Marktteilnehmern die Erwartung durch, dass es nach dem Ende der Corona-Pandemie eine nachhaltige Erholung der Weltwirtschaft geben wird. Globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung , IT-Sicherheit, Infrastrukturausbau sowie Erneuerbare Energien bleiben in diesem Marktumfeld weiter bestimmend. Die hierauf spezialisierten Unternehmen innerhalb des Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) können langfristig mit überdurchschnittlichen Kursgewinnen aufwarten. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner von Pictet Asset Management liefert in seinem Monatsbericht für Juli Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur und die aktuelle Marktlage. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
Stocks held up well across the board in July as stimulus from central banks and governments around the globe and largely uneventful reopenings of economies raised hopes for a sustained post-pandemic recovery. US equities took heart from the latest earnings season, where profits are down sharply but not quite as sharply as analysts had expected. European stocks benefited from the EU recovery plan that could pave the way not only to stronger growth and better fiscal unity but also to lower required risk premia. Emerging market equities also did well, adding 8% in local terms. Sectors most exposed to the economic cycle, such as materials and consumer discretionary, fared particularly well. Energy remained the notable laggard, finishing July in the red. Gold was the star performer in July, gaining 10.7% and hitting fresh record highs. Investors were drawn to the precious metal’s defensive characteristics as new coronavirus infections continued to rise around the world and relations between the US and China grew more tense. The US dollar did not fare as well and sagged to a two-year low against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. In response, the Fed affirmed that it would use its full range of tools to support the economy and would keep interest rates near zero for as long as necessary. This sent yields on both US government debt and corporate credit to historic lows.
Performance analysis
The strategy outperformed the MSCI ACWI (5.29 % in USD) during the month. Top contributors were Timber, Water, Clean Energy, Security, Nutrition and Health while Biotech, Robotics, Premium Brands, SmartCity and Digital detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
This year, governments and central banks have certainly delivered, pulling the global economy out of a pandemic-caused slump with record-breaking volumes of stimulus. Central banks of the world’s top five economies are expected to inject the equivalent of 14% of GDP in stimulus this year. The monetary and fiscal stimulus pledged across the globe should be enough to offset the uncertainty related to the pandemic. In the US, for example, government transfers now account for around a quarter of total household income, more than double the pre-Covid level. The global recovery so far, albeit better than previously anticipated, has been led by improving private consumption. Industrial production has remained muted. Going forward we expect increased production underpinning the next phase of recovery in growth. However, global stocks have gained over 40% since March. The global decline of long-term rates is a powerful driver of equity multiples, especially for longer duration companies, such as growth stocks. We need to keep a close watch on valuation, but we continue to see a broad set of attractive opportunities in our thematic universe, where the market continues to underappreciate long-term growth and profitability.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes, supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Since April, the strategy includes an allocation to Biotech in addition to the previously included Water, Timber, Robotics, Premium Brands, Nutrition, Health, Digital, Security, SmartCity and Clean Energy.
