Im Januar verzeichnete der MSCI World ein leichtes Minus von 1,0 Prozent auf US-Dollar-Basis, nachdem der “Sturm” auf das US-Capitol sowie die exorbitanten Kursgewinne der GameStop-Aktie für Aufsehen an den Börsen sorgten. Globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit, Gesundheit sowie Saubere Energien bleiben auch in diesem Marktumfeld weiter aussichtsreich – dementsprechend übertraf der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) den MSCI World und generierte eine Performance von -0,45 Prozent im Januar. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur und analysiert die aktuelle Marktlage. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom Pictet-FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
January 2021 will be remembered as the month when populism shook the foundations of Wall Street. Amateur traders, whose ranks and investment resources have swollen with the emergence of commission-free trading platforms and as governments have enforced lockdowns and boosted welfare payments, launched a coordinated assault on hedge funds with short positions in struggling firms. By driving up the shares of heavily shorted companies, such as video games retailer GameStop – which rallied by much as 1600% on the month – day traders succeeded in inflicting heavy losses on some of the most revered money managers. The buying spree saw daily trading volumes hit their highest levels since the depths of the 2008 credit crisis. The volatility of share prices also spiked, with the VIX Index surging. The disruption caused by day traders unsettled a market already concerned by high valuations, the persistently high Covid-19 infection rates and delays in the rollout of vaccinations. The fourth quarter earnings season has so far been positive, but companies’ lack of clarity on 2021 prospects also weighs on stocks. The MSCI World Index of global stocks ended marginally down on the month in US dollar terms while US stocks fell by almost 1%. Bonds also ended lower while oil gained more than 6%.
Performance analysis
The strategy outperformed the MSCI ACWI (-0.45 % in USD) during the month. Top contributors were Biotech, Robotics, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Timber and Human while Premium Brands, SmartCity, Nutrition, Security and Water detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
The surge in trading activity by retail investors and hedge funds reducing their positions in widely held equities has caused one of the sharpest daily spikes in market volatility ever recorded. Even so, we do not believe markets have become inherently unstable and we expect this volatility will fade over time due to brightening economic prospects and solid corporate earnings. Although the latest wave of lockdowns has prompted a dip in activity, the slowdown has been relatively mild and daily data is already bouncing back. Manufacturing has not been shut down this time round, and businesses in general are much better prepared. Governments, meanwhile, are ready to step in with additional stimulus. This should continue to underpin stocks, particularly in the US and the eurozone. Emerging markets, meanwhile, are being lifted by a strong rebound in exports. While valuations are expensive for riskier assets, they are nowhere close to the bubble levels of 2007, which suggests that there is still a long cycle in front of us if the macro backdrop continues to be supportive.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Since December, the strategy includes an allocation to Human, in addition to the previously included Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
