Die Weltwirtschaft wird immer stärker von globalen Megatrends wie Digitalisierung , IT-Sicherheit, dem Infrastrukturausbau sowie dem Schwenk zu Erneuerbaren Energien geprägt. Die hierauf spezialisierten Unternehmen innerhalb des Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) können langfristig mit überdurchschnittlichen Kursgewinnen aufwarten. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner von Pictet Asset Management liefert in seinem Monatsbericht für August Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur und die aktuelle Marktlage. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
August was the story of weak equities and strong bonds as investors reacted to an escalation of trade tensions between China and the US and positioned for the next wave of monetary stimulus amid signs of economic weakness around the world. Unsurprisingly, markets with the greatest sensitivity to China – emerging markets and Japan in particular – suffered some of the biggest losses. Meanwhile, the UK market was battered by fears of political chaos as the deadline for Brexit approaches and a ‘no deal’ divorce seems on the cards. Among sectors, Utilities and Real Estate contributed positively while energy and Financials were two of the biggest losers.
Performance analysis
The strategy slightly outperformed the MSCI World’s -2.05% return (in USD) during the Month. Top contributors were Health, Premium Brands, Water and Security while Robotics, Clean Energy, Digital and Timber detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
Market sentiment has been held back for several reasons. Trade tensions between the US and China were a dark cloud over the market. While not resolved yet, the trade spat between the two countries is closer to an acceptable solution for both, now that both parties are involved in discussions again. Another concern was the risk of recession due to a global economic slowdown. Central banks have turned their rhetoric from hawkish to dovish. Investors have now started to discount this support from central banks and are now discounting a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts in the next 12 months. The US economic backdrop is still positive, even if slowing down. The eurozone’s outlook is improving, even before ECB President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s commitment to provide stimulus when needed. Our business cycle indicators do not suggest a hard landing for the global economy. This leaves expectations for the rebound in profit growth for the second half of this year which is expected to gradually be lowered during the Q2 earnings season. Despite these lowered expectations and buoyant markets, we continue to see plenty of upside for our portfolio holdings as growth outlook for our companies is supported by long-term secular trends and is less reliant on the global economic cycle.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Water, Timber, Robotics, Premium Brands, Nutrition, Health, Digital, Security, Smart City and Clean Energy.
