Im April konnte der MSCI World eine klar positive Performance von +3,8 Prozent verzeichnen, was die Kursgewinne des bisherigen Aktienjahres über die 10-Prozent-Marke ansteigen ließ. Globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit, Gesundheit sowie Saubere Energien bleiben in diesem Marktumfeld weiter aussichtsreich – so übertraf der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) den MSCI World und generierte eine Performance von +4,37 Prozent. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht für April Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur und analysiert die aktuelle Marktlage. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom Pictet-FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
Global equities enjoyed a strong performance in April, adding 3.8% in local currency terms in aggregate, taking their gains for the year past the 10% mark. US stocks fared particularly well, with the S&P 500 posting gains for a third consecutive month as investors welcome solid economic data and better-than-expected corporate profits. With over 300 of US blue chips having already reported first quarter numbers, 87% beat consensus forecasts. Japan was the only major equity region to finish April in the red, hit by concerns that fresh restrictions to contain a surge of Covid-19 cases will crimp economic growth. Among equity sectors, the laggard was energy, failing to make any headway despite a 7% jump in oil prices. Materials, in contrast, took heart from an 8% jump in global commodity prices. In fixed income, investors favoured higher risk segments. US investment grade and high-yield credit each gained over 1%. Emerging market debt also held up well. US Treasury yields retreated from March’s one-year high in the face of rising concerns about a peak in economic momentum and with the Fed managing to temper market expectations of a hawkish turn in policy. The yield spread between benchmark 10-year treasuries and their German equivalents shrank to its lowest level since March 2020, to just 179 basis points. The dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.
Performance analysis
The strategy slightly outperformed the MSCI ACWI (4.37% in USD) during the month. Top contributors were Premium Brands, Human, Water, Timber, SmartCity and Security while Clean Energy, Biotech, Robotics, Digital, Health and Nutrition detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
The global economy is recovering well from the pandemic, but growth momentum has slowed slightly. In the eurozone, the recovery is not self-sustained yet and is fully conditional on successful control of the pandemic, the vaccination campaign and on the persistence of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. Economic activity in the US, meanwhile, continues to beat expectations. We expect growth to peak in the current quarter before slowing into the year-end as the fiscal boost starts to fade. Liquidity remains supportive for riskier assets thanks to continued central bank stimulus, but should start to ease over the coming months. Globally, stocks earnings multiples should come under pressure in the coming months as monetary stimulus fades. Any further upside for equities will thus have to come from corporate earnings growth. This could indeed continue to surprise on the upside as seen during this earnings season.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Since December, the strategy includes an allocation to Human, in addition to the previously included Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
