Chinesische Aktien zeigten sich im Verlauf des Handelsmonats Mai schwächer, da gestiegene Spannungen zwischen den USA und China rund um die Situation in Hongkong die Lage belasteten. Zudem verhängten die USA neue Restriktionen gegen den chinesischen Technologiegiganten Huawei. FondsManager Raymond Ma hat sich in seinem Fidelity China Consumer Fund A Acc EUR (WKN A1JH3J, ISIN LU0594300252 ) ganz auf chinesische Konsumtitel spezialisiert und informiert FondsInvestoren der Strategie SJB Nachhaltig, was dies für seinen China-Fonds bedeutet. In seinen aktuellen Managersichten für Mai analysiert er Portfoliozusammensetzung und Performance des auf die Binnenkonjunktur im „Reich der Mitte“ fokussierten Fidelity-Produktes.
Market Environment
Chinese equities fell over the month due to a re-escalation of tensions with the US. A new national-security law that China imposed on Hong Kong fuelled tensions. In addition, the US government imposed new restrictions on Chinese technology giant Huawei and uncertainty remained around a US bill that could impact Chinese companies on its exchange. Nevertheless, optimism around a potential COVID-19 vaccine in the near term, an under-control COVID-19 situation and improving domestic economic activity supported the market. China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) convened on May 22 and projected a fiscal deficit budget of over 3.6% of GDP, which will focus on financial relief for small businesses and households, as well as infrastructure investment. The NPC also decided to drop its traditional annual economic growth target given the significant challenges facing the economy following the COVID-19 outbreak. On the economic front, industrial production and exports for April exceeded market estimates. Conversely, retail sales for April fell below expectations and fixed asset investment contracted over the January–April period, broadly in line with expectations. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rate steady, defying expectations for a reduction in light of widespread disruptions to businesses from the COVID-19 pandemic. At the sector level, real estate and financials declined, while consumer and health care stocks were the best performers.
Fund Performance
The fund returned -2.0% while the index delivered -0.5% in May. Selected financials stocks came under pressure. Of note, insurers AIA Group and China Life Insurance detracted from performance. The former reported lacklustre corporate earnings, undermined by weakness in the ‘Value for New Business’ in Hong Kong, mainland China and Malaysia. The former fell out of favour due to its muted near-term profitability outlook in light of a slowdown in demand, a lower interest rate environment and intensifying competition from foreign and online players. Among communication services, sentiment towards China Mobile weakened following tighter export restrictions imposed by the US on telecommunication equipment manufacturer Huawei. The company may slowdown fifth generation (5G) deployment and aggregated capital expenses could go up as Huawei may not be able to produce base transceiver station (BTS) as efficiently as before. Meanwhile, consumer stocks were mixed. An underweight stance in Alibaba Group weighed on relative returns. Investor favoured Alibaba for its dominant position in the structurally growing ecommerce space and the healthy long-term value from other businesses. On a positive note, the exposure to JD. com proved rewarding. It reported upbeat quarterly results driven by robust sales and margin expansion. China Resources Beer rose on positive demand prospects supported by the re-opening of restaurants and supermarkets in China, the launch of premium products, and a hotter spring and summer season.
Fund Positioning
The manager maintains an overweight stance in “New China” sectors as they are less sensitive to macroeconomic cyclicality and short-term policy shifts. These sectors are also expected to witness solid growth in coming years due to technology advancements and changes in consumer behaviour. As such, the fund is overweight in consumer and communication services stocks. Defensively placed state-owned telecommunications operator China Mobile offers an attractive combination of dividend yields and earnings resilience in the current volatile environment. Benign competition and regulatory pressures, as well as strong demand for data communication amid work from home and online education trends are likely to offer the company some protection against the challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Food conglomerate Uni-President Enterprises is favoured for its dominance in the Taiwanese consumer value chain as well as disciplined new product launches and its focus on premiumisation. E-commerce company JD.Com is retained for its disciplined approach to capital allocation. It enjoys healthy earnings growth prospects, aided by its competitive positioning, better economies of scale in its core business, strong execution capability, better cost structure than the offline domain and improved operating leverage. Additionally, the company is likely to benefit from a robust retail profitability strategy and penetration into lower tier cities with diversified product offerings. Its self-run logistics network also makes it less vulnerable to the global pandemic compared to its peers in light of potential supply chain upgrades and active customer accounts.
