Chinesische Aktien gaben im Januar nach, da sich erste Befürchtungen um die ökonomischen Folgen des Corona-Virus breitmachten. Die Unterzeichnung von Phase 1 des Handelsdeals zwischen China und den USA rückte dagegen in den Hintergrund. FondsManager Raymond Ma, der sich in seinem Fidelity China Consumer Fund A Acc EUR (WKN A1JH3J, ISIN LU0594300252 ) ganz auf chinesische Konsumtitel spezialisiert hat, informiert FondsInvestoren der Strategie SJB Nachhaltig, was dies für seinen China-Fonds bedeutet. In seinen aktuellen Managersichten für Januar analysiert er Portfoliozusammensetzung und Performance des auf die Binnenkonjunktur im „Reich der Mitte“ fokussierten Fidelity-Produktes.
Market Environment
Chinese equities slid as investors focused the potential impact that the novel coronavirus would have on the economy in the near term. The international alarm over the novel coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, and has affected thousands of people globally led to a widespread sell-off in the market. Meanwhile, the signing of the “phase one” trade deal between the US and China supported investor sentiment. Robust economic data and stimulus measures by the central bank also buoyed sentiment in the first half of the month. In key developments, China has taken several substantial measures to curtail the contagion from the novel coronavirus outbreak, including extending the Chinese New Year public holidays, and imposing large scale quarantines and travel restrictions. Separately, the Chinese economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to a year earlier, in line with estimates and unchanged from the previous quarter’s pace. The People’s Bank of China announced a further cut in the reserve requirement ratio to inject liquidity into the banking system and support small and medium enterprises and private sector firms. The Hong Kong market retreated due to weakness in Macau-based gaming companies and consumer staples. Retail sales continued to decline in November for the 10th consecutive month, led by an ongoing contraction in sales of jewellery, watches and luxury goods. Overall, all sectors except health care and information technology (IT) ended in negative territory. The real estate and energy sectors were the key laggards. In particular, energy companies fell in line with a decline in crude oil prices.
Fund Performance
The fund outperformed the index in January, as selected communication services stocks contributed to performance. Internet technology company NetEase gained as its strong gaming pipeline, increased monetisation capability of its cloud music platform and efficient cost controls are likely to boost its profitability in the near term. Certain consumer discretionary stocks also ended higher. E-commerce company JD.Com rose. The ramp-up of fifth generation (5G) products, an acceleration in traffic due to effective marketing initiatives, increased economies of scale and loss reduction in new businesses are likely to bode well for its earnings growth prospects. Private educational service providers New Oriental Education and Technology Group as well as Tal Education Group advanced in light of their healthy earnings amid strong student enrolment growth and their capacity expansion plans. The former was also supported by an improvement in operating leverage owing to better utilisation rates. Conversely, China Life Insurance fell amid concerns over the impact that the novel coronavirus outbreak would have on agency productivity. However, the insurance services provider delivered healthy earnings and is likely to benefit from a strong jumpstart in sales and growth in the value of new businesses. Shares in liquor and beverage maker Kweichow Moutai declined as its quarterly earnings as well as sales volume target and profitability guidance for 2020 fell below expectations. Nonetheless, it is held for its dominant position in China’s high-end liquor market, product mix upgrades, superior brand name and solid pricing and bargaining power.
Fund Positioning
The manager maintains an overweight stance in “New China” sectors as they are less sensitive to macroeconomic cyclicality and short-term policy shifts. These sectors are also expected to witness solid growth in coming years due to technology advancements and changes in consumer behaviour. As such, the fund is overweight in consumer stocks. Dairy products manufacturer China Mengniu Dairy is a beneficiary of consumption upgrades by China’s growing middle class. It also enjoys a leading position in high-end ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk and chilled yoghurt. Benign competitive pressures, product innovation, channel penetration and market share consolidation should support the stock. Food conglomerate Uni-President Enterprises is also favoured given its dominance in the Taiwanese consumer value chain as well as disciplined new product launches and focus on premiumisation. Macau-based casino operator Sands China is held for its resilient mass gaming segment. Robust dividend payouts supported by its healthy balance sheet are also likely to attract investor interest towards the stock. Additionally, the manager sees significant opportunities in insurance companies stocks. Insurance services provider AIA Group is retained for its management’s solid track record, differentiated business model, clear strategic priorities and disciplined execution. Its long-term profitability is likely to be supported by prospects of an expansion of its Chinese operations. China Life Insurance is expected to benefit from structural demand in China’s insurance industry, solid execution capability and expectations of robust dividend payouts. It should also benefit from the implementation of a prudent investment strategy owing to its new management team.
