Chinesische Aktien legten im Dezember im Umfeld nachlassender Handelsspannungen zwischen den USA und China zu. Besonders positiv entwickelten sich Konsumaktien sowie Industrietitel, während Aktien aus dem Kommunikationssektor vergleichsweise schwächer notierten. FondsManager Raymond Ma hat sich in seinem Fidelity China Consumer Fund A Acc EUR (WKN A1JH3J, ISIN LU0594300252 ) ganz auf chinesische Konsumtitel spezialisiert und favorisiert Firmen, die von Chinas Wandel weg von einer exportorientierten Ökonomie hin zu einer verstärkt vom Binnenkonsum getragenen Wirtschaft profitieren. In seinen aktuellen Managersichten für Dezember analysiert er Portfoliozusammensetzung und Performance des auf die Verbraucher im „Reich der Mitte“ fokussierten Fidelity-Produktes.
Market Environment
Chinese equities advanced amid easing trade tensions between the US and China and stimulus measures implemented by the Chinese government. In particular, a partial trade truce was reached between the US and China, with the ‘phase one’ trade deal likely to be signed in January. On the economic front, China’s third quarter GDP was slightly slower than expected as the country struggled with the trade war with the US and lacklustre domestic demand. In key developments, China announced plans to step up investments in infrastructure, including railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation in 2020 to bolster its economy. China’s central bank cut the interest rate on its one-year medium-term loan as well as seven-day and fourteen-day reverse repurchase rates. It also lowered its new benchmark one-year loan prime rate (LPR) for the third time since it became the official lending benchmark in August. In addition, the People’s Bank of China guided commercial banks to convert old benchmark lending rates into loan prime rates for existing and new loan books. Policy measures implemented by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority also boosted the Hong Kong market. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut its key policy rate in line with the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In addition, it reduced the amount of cash that banks must keep as reserves to support the ailing economy. Meanwhile, Hong Kong slid into a recession for the first time in a decade in the third quarter, as subdued economic prospects hurt sentiment. Overall, all sectors ended in positive territory. Of note, the real estate and consumer discretionary sectors were the notable gainers. Materials stocks also tracked base metal prices higher.
Fund Performance
The fund underperformed the index over the quarter, as selected communication services stocks held back gains. Conversely, certain consumer discretionary and industrials stocks contributed to performance.
Communication services stocks detracted
State-owned telecommunications operators China Unicom Hong Kong and China Mobile fell amid concerns over delays in the adoption of fifth generation (5G) technology and intensifying competitive pressures. Additionally, the former was dragged down by worries ver weak subscriber growth due to a poor 4G network resulting from the removal of lowend data plans and price hikes. Nonetheless, the company is likely to benefit from market share gains in the 4G domain, stemming from the re-farming of 2G spectrum for 4G use. China Mobile is likely to benefit from its strategy to integrate 5G technology with artificial intelligence (AI), cloud, big data and the internet of things (IoT) for the development of its ecosystem.
Strong earnings growth momentum buoyed certain positions
Private educational services provider Tal Education Group gained in light of upbeat earnings and a robust profitability guidance, supported by an acceleration in offline capacity expansion. Zhejiang Sanhua, a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, enhanced gains. Its shares rose on robust quarterly earnings and expectations that an increase in orders for new energy vehicles (NEV) would bode well for its growth prospects. The company is also likely to be a beneficiary of increased utilisation levels in its electronic expansion valves business and an upgrade in energy efficiency standards for air conditioners in 2020.
Fund Positioning
I continue to favour the “New China” theme. These sectors are expected to witness solid growth in the coming years due to technology advancements, changes in consumer behaviour and flexible business strategies. I focus on good growth companies with solid balance sheets and strong cash generation capability, which could help the fund to continue to generate alpha in times of volatility. The portfolio maintains a bias towards the consumer and insurance sectors.
Conviction in insurance service providers and consumer stocks
Hong Kong-based insurance services provider AIA Group is retained for its management’s solid track record, differentiated business model, clear strategic priorities and disciplined execution. Its long-term profitability is likely to be supported by prospects of an expansion of its Chinese operations and the potential removal of foreign shareholding restrictions on life insurers. China Life Insurance is expected to benefit from structural demand in China’s insurance industry and expectations of robust dividend payouts. It could also benefit from the implementation of an enhanced product strategy owing to its new management team. Dairy products manufacturer China Mengniu Dairy enjoys a leading position in high-end ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk and chilled yoghurt. Benign competitive pressures, product innovation and market share consolidation should support the stock. Private educational services provider New Oriental Education and Technology is preferred for the structural growth in K-12 after-school tutoring demand in China, strong momentum in student enrolment and margin expansion.
