Chinesische Aktien legten im November zu, da es Optimismus angesichts der Fortschritte im US-chinesischen Handelsstreit sowie wirtschaftspolitischer Stimuli der Regierung in China gab. Negativ auf den Aktienmarkt wirkten sich hingegen die fortgesetzten Proteste der Hongkonger Demokratiebewegung aus, die sich in rückläufigen Einzelhandelsumsätzen aufgrund sinkender Besucherzahlen niederschlugen. FondsManager Raymond Ma hat sich in seinem Fidelity China Consumer Fund A Acc EUR (WKN A1JH3J, ISIN LU0594300252 ), ganz auf chinesische Konsumtitel spezialisiert und favorisiert die Firmen, die von Chinas Wandel weg von einer exportorientierten Ökonomie hin zu einer verstärkt vom Binnenkonsum getragenen Wirtschaft profitieren. In seinen aktuellen Managersichten für November analysiert er Portfoliozusammensetzung und Performance des auf die Verbraucher im „Reich der Mitte“ fokussierten Fidelity-FondsProduktes.
Market Environment
Chinese equities advanced amid optimism over US-China trade negotiations and policy support measures implemented by the Chinese government. However, gains were limited as the US government passed a bill to support pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong, which rekindled concerns over trade talks towards the end of the month. On the monetary policy front, China’s central bank cut the interest rate on its one-year medium-term loans and the seven-day reverse repurchase rate. China also lowered its new benchmark one-year loan prime rate (LPR) for the third time since it became the official lending benchmark in August. In key economic news, China’s retail sales and new bank lending were slower than expected in October. Fixed asset investment growth was also weaker than market estimates for the January–October 2019 period. Meanwhile, exports and imports beat expectations. Additionally, China brought forward its local government special bonds quota for 2020 worth 1 trillion-yuan. This move is likely to give local governments more room to issue debt to fund infrastructure projects, which could prop up China’s slowing economy. Weakness in consumer and communication services stocks hurt Hong Kong equities. In key economic news, Hong Kong slid into a recession for the first time in a decade in the third quarter, as social unrest weighed on consumption and subdued economic prospects hurt sentiment. Overall, at the sector level, consumer discretionary and communication services stocks were the notable gainers. The materials sector also tracked iron-ore prices higher. Conversely, health care and utility stocks ended lower.
Fund Performance
The fund underperformed the index in November, as selected communication services positions held back gains. In particular, state-owned telecommunications operators China Unicom Hong Kong and China Mobile fell amid concerns over delays in the adoption of fifth generation (5G) technology and intensifying competitive pressures. Additionally, the former was dragged down by worries over weak subscriber growth due to a poor 4G network, resulting from the removal of low-end data plans, price hikes and cuts in marketing expenses. Nonetheless, the company is likely to benefit from market share gains in the 4G domain, stemming from the re-farming of 2G spectrum for 4G use. The implementation of mixed ownership reforms in China should further bolster the stock. China Mobile was weighed down by weakness in average revenue per user and saturation in the 4G market. However, the company is held for its healthy balance sheet and sustainable dividend yields. It is further likely to benefit from its strategy to integrate the 5G technology with artificial intelligence (AI), cloud, big data and the internet of things (IoT) for the development of its ecosystem. These losses were partially offset by the position in Chinese internet technology company NetEase, which added value as better-than-anticipated online gaming revenue, continued business optimisation and cost controls resulted in upbeat earnings. The disposal of its cross-border e-commerce platform Kaola.Com to Alibaba Group Holding further strengthened the company’s focus on new verticals such as education and music for long-term growth. The announcement of a special dividend also attracted investor interest towards the stock. Certain consumer staples positions also enhanced gains. In particular, the allocation to hypermarket operator Sun Art Retail Group proved rewarding. Progress on TaoXianDa, a fresh food service offering an integrated solution to retailers to digitise their operations, is likely to boost the profitability of Sun Art Retail’s online grocery delivery business. This is likely to make the company the first profitable online grocery delivery service operator.
Fund Positioning
The manager maintains an overweight stance in “New China” sectors as they are less sensitive to macroeconomic cyclicality and short-term policy shifts. These sectors are also expected to witness solid growth in coming years due to technology advancements and changes in consumer behaviour. As such, the fund is overweight in consumer stocks. China Mengniu Dairy enjoys a leading position in high end ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk and chilled yoghurt, and is likely to be a beneficiary of benign competitive pressures and market share consolidation. The proposed acquisitions of organic infant milk formula company Bellamy’s Australia and dairy and beverage company Lion-Dairy and Drinks should further strengthen its presence in the Asia Pacific region. Private educational services provider New Oriental Education and Technology is preferred for the structural growth in K-12 after-school tutoring demand in China, strong momentum in student enrolment and margin expansion. Additionally, the manager sees significant opportunities in the insurance sector. Insurance services provider AIA Group is retained for its management’s solid track record, differentiated business model, clear strategic priorities and disciplined execution. The company’s high quality regular premium long duration protection policies are further likely to support its robust earnings growth prospects. China Life Insurance is expected to benefit from structural demand in China’s insurance industry and expectations of robust dividend payouts. It is also likely to be a beneficiary of the implementation of an enhanced product strategy owing to its new management team.
