Die globalen Aktienmärkte verzeichneten im April einen scharfen Sell-off, der zu Kursverlusten von rund 13 Prozent beim NASDAQ führte und auch Titel wie Apple, Amazon und Netflix stark in Mitleidenschaft zog. Hauptbelastungsfaktoren waren die stark gestiegenen Erwartungen an Zinserhöhungen sowie die russische Invasion der Ukraine. In diesem angespannten Marktumfeld entwickelte sich der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) besser als seine Benchmark MSCI World und verzeichnete eine Performance von -1,82 Prozent in Euro. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht alle Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur des auf globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit und Erneuerbare Energien fokussierten Fonds.
Market review
Stocks suffered a sharp sell-off in April. The Nasdaq fell 13%, its worst monthly decline since the 2008 global financial crisis, following disappointing quarterly results from some of world’s largest tech firms, including Apple, Amazon and Netflix. The index is down more than 20% since the beginning of the year while the S&P 500 Index has witnessed its worst start to the year in more than 80 years. More broadly, the MSCI World Growth Index ended the month 22% below its peak, which it hit in November last year, its steepest peak-to-trough fall since 2008. The decline in stock markets came as Fed officials continued to press the case for further interest rate hikes to battle inflation, which hit a 40-year high in April. Bond markets sold off in response to the increasingly hawkish rhetoric, with yields on the US 10-year inflation-linked bond moving into positive territory for the first time since 2020 and the 10-year nominal bond yield threatening to break through the key 3% mark. The Chinese renminbi saw its steepest ever monthly decline as the country saw the imposition of severe lockdowns in response to renewed Covid outbreaks. Also falling precipitously against the dollar was the Japanese yen, which has suffered as the Bank of Japan has controversially pursued an ultra-loose monetary policy in the face of rising inflation.
Performance analysis
The strategy outperformed the MSCI ACWI, which has returned -8.00% in USD. Top contributors were Timber, Nutrition, Water, Health, Premium Brands, SmartCity and Security while Clean Energy, Robotics, Human, Digital and Biotech detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
Global economic growth is slowing, inflation is high, no resolution appears in sight for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and new Covid-related lockdowns are sweeping through China, impeding growth. Investors could be forgiven for adopting a defensive stance. Yet history tells us that shorting equities in a bull market, even during the later phase of the cycle when sentiment is very depressed, is always very dangerous. The US economy continues to look solid: US real GDP contracted in the first quarter, but final demand continues to gather strength thanks to an exceptionally strong labour market and positive trends in investment spending. Things look more problematic in the euro zone – not least due to its closer economic and geographic ties to Russia and Ukraine. The Chinese economy is also struggling due to weakness in the property sector and the consequences of Covid lockdowns in some major cities. For equities, valuations are looking more attractive, with the 12-month price-to-earnings ratio on MSCI All Country World Index having dropped to 15.5 times. Earnings downgrades now outnumber upgrades for the first time since August 2020. The equity put/call ratio has risen to near top of the historical range, signaling that positioning on stocks is already exceptionally negative. In such an environment, market gains could provoke a wave of position adjustments, further fueling the rally.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Human, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
