Die globalen Aktienmärkte legten im August kräftig zu, da die Sorgen um eine zweite Welle der Corona-Pandemie abflauten und die monetären und fiskalischen Stimulus-Programme für Unterstützung bei der wirtschaftlichen Erholung sorgten. Globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung , IT-Sicherheit, Gesundheit sowie Saubere Energien bleiben in diesem Marktumfeld weiter aussichtsreich. Die hierauf spezialisierten Unternehmen innerhalb des Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) warten langfristig mit überdurchschnittlichen Renditechancen auf. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner von Pictet Asset Management liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur und die aktuelle Marktlage. Wertvolle Informationen direkt vom FondsManager für alle Investoren der Strategie SJB Substanz.
Market review
Global stocks surged in August as investors pushed aside worries about a second Covid-19 wave and bet that monetary and fiscal stimulus programmes would support a V-shaped economic recovery. The MSCI AC World Index rose 6.1% in USD, outperforming bonds that lost over 1%. Investors were also encouraged by the improving outlook for earnings as EPS revisions have turned positive. US stocks rose 7.5%, the best August in at least 30 years. The S&P 500 Index hit a record high, technology shares dominating the rally with gains of over 9%. Apple has risen nearly 20% to surpass $2 trillion in market value. Consumer discretionary stocks were the best performing sector after rising more than 12%. Utilities fell 2% while energy, healthcare, and real estate sectors posted only modest gains. In fact, only six per cent of the S&P Index is at a 52-week high while the average S&P stock is still some 28% below the peak, showing the declining participation in this year’s rally. European stocks also posted the biggest August gain since 2009 as the region’s economies emerged from lockdowns. Bonds struggled across the board. Gilts lost over 3% while US Treasuries fell over 1%. The dollar fell more than 1% after it hit a two-year low, bringing its losses this year to 4%. This helped commodities with oil rising 3%. Gold ended the month slightly down after hitting a record high earlier in the month.
Performance analysis
The strategy underperformed the MSCI ACWI (6.12% in USD) during the month. Top contributors were Premium Brands, Timber, Nutrition, Digital and SmartCity while Health, Biotech, Water, Security, Robotics and Clean Energy detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
The recovery is looking increasingly V-shaped. Global liquidity conditions remain very supportive, with new liquidity creation running at 25% of GDP. The US Federal Reserve has formally become a more dovish institution at the margin, targeting 2% inflation and maximum employment. While governments may yet offer more fiscal stimulus, not least in the US, liquidity provision is slowing worldwide. Central banks may have eased up on monetary stimulus in recent weeks, but the liquidity they have provided should help stabilize equity markets following their near 50% rally or at least limit the risk of a correction. Our sentiment indicators paint a mixed picture. The balance of equity calls to puts suggests a degree of market complacency, and our indicators show hedge funds have crowded into a handful of concentrated positions, particularly in the largest of the large-cap stocks. On the other hand, this also means an improving environment for stock picking.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes, supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Since April, the strategy includes an allocation to Biotech in addition to the previously included Water, Timber, Robotics, Premium Brands, Nutrition, Health, Digital, Security, SmartCity and Clean Energy.
