Tagesarchiv

 ECP | Luxemburg, 24.04.2020 We have been asked over the last days on how we exploit the current weakness in the oil price. For the ones believing in a swift oil price recovery, a simple and easily implementable trade is going long an oil ETF. We have two concerns with this strategy. First, as value investors we focus on earning power, namely the capacity of our investment to generate discretionary free cash flow. Unfortunately, a commodity does not generate cash flows …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 17.04.2020 The Economist run a cover last week with the title “The business of survival : How COVID-19 will reshape global commerce”. This is exactly what the managements of the companies we are invested in are doing: they make sure that their businesses survive. In a Darwinist approach of survival of the fittest, communication and public relations can sometimes become the collateral damage of this struggle. This is what happened to one of our recent additions to …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 03.04.2020 The broad market sell-off in March gave us the opportunity to enter the business of cancer treatment again. Not so long ago we sold our shares in Elekta around 135 SEK and now we had the chance to buy back the shares at prices 40-45% lower than when we sold them. This is an opportunity we only get every few years so we kept Elekta on our watchlist after we sold it in hope of getting …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 20.03.2020 As Luxembourg has gone into a complete lock-down and our Prime Minister declared the state of emergency, I wanted first to use the opportunity to wish your families and yourselves courage in this difficult situation. Personally, I take comfort in the fact that our governments have taken such steep measures to slow the outbreak. I also take comfort in the fact that I see in my surroundings a lot of solidarity, respect and sense of duty. …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 13.03.2020 Low valuation has till now not provided capital protection in the recent market turmoil, as value has done worse than growth. The MSCI Europe Value total net return index is down 25.7% from the peak of the market on February 19th up to Wednesday this week while the MSCI Europe Growth index lost “only” 20.4%. Since the beginning of the year, value underperformed growth by 9.3%! 

 ECP | Luxemburg, 16.03.2020 The world is currently facing a crisis our generation has not experienced before. We limit ourselves here to analyze its impact on financial markets and our way to manage portfolios. After decades of efforts to make globalization happen the entire globe is now more interconnected than ever. Companies have globalized both their markets and their supply chains and consumers have today much better possibilities to travel between continents than they had just 10 years ago.

 ECP | Luxemburg, 21.02.2020 In my career as a stock-picker and value investor, I considered dispersion as my friend. The higher the dispersion of stock prices and valuations, the more opportunities are available for the long-term investors chasing bargains of solid companies at momentarily depressed valuations. The foundations of value investing Benjamin Graham laid down in the beginning of the 30’s of last century has been a very successful strategy up to the financial crisis02. Since, his strategy unfortunately became …

Rohstofftitel und Minenwerte legten zum Ausklang des vergangenen Handelsjahres eine kräftige Kursrallye hin. In der Konsequenz verzeichnete der Craton Capital Global Resources Fund im Dezember einen Wertzuwachs von 13,4 Prozent. Auch wenn diese Kursgewinne aufgrund der Sorgen, dass der Coronavirus die globale Konjunktur und damit auch die Rohstoffnachfrage negativ beeinflussen könnte, größtenteils wieder verschwunden sind, bleibt das langfristige Investmentszenario positiv.

 ECP | Luxemburg, 31.01.2020 In his speech on Wednesday this week, Fed chairman Powell commented on the spread of the novel coronavirus “Coronavirus outbreak is likely to cause disruption in China and globally; uncertain what macroeconomic effects will be at this point.” Stock-markets have been quick to adjust to this new risk factor and its potential impact on trade and economic growth. China is indeed important as it represents 18% of the world economy and any slowdown in Chinese consumption …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 20.12.2019 With the year-end festivities and a new decade just around the corner, I wanted to wrap-up the current state of affairs in European value land in a slightly longer morning coffee. In order to keep it short, I am however not overloading the morning coffee with text, but instead summarize the current state of affairs in European valueland with 4 hopefully self-explaining graphs:

 ECP | Luxemburg, 06.12.2019 A year ago, we published a morning coffee with the title “No chocolate for St Nicolaus” where we made the point that value investors had been voted down by Mr Market and that the value investment style had generated significant losses in 2018, more than we would have expected from an investment approach putting preservation of capital and valuations in the foreground of its analysis. Therefore, we would not receive any chocolate for St Nicolaus, a local …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 29.11.2019 Wir haben in den letzten Wochen eine schüchterne Rückkehr zugunsten des Value-Stils erlebt, der begonnen hat, die Momentum & Glamour-Strategien zu übertreffen. Ein Grund für diesen wachsenden Appetit auf Value-Investing ist ein extremer und nicht nachhaltiger Bewertungsabschlag der Value-Stocks im Vergleich zum Gesamtmarkt. Unterstützend wirkten sich zudem die verbesserten Wirtschaftsdaten, besser als erwartet ausgefallene Quartalsergebnisse der zyklischen Industrie und die Stabilisierung der Anleiherenditen 10-jähriger US-Treasuries oberhalb der Tiefststände von Anfang September aus. Einige Strategen zeigen sich …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 22.11.2019 Eines der bemerkenswerten Dinge in unserer Branche ist die große Menge an Daten, die uns als Finanzanalysten zur Verfügung stehen. Wir verfügen über eine jahrzehntelange Geschichte von Aktienkursreihen und Bewertungsdaten. Wir haben jetzt auch die Rechenleistung, um diese Daten zu verarbeiten. Macht uns das zu besseren Investoren, oder quälen wir die Daten lange genug, damit sie irgendwann nachgeben und unsere inneren Überzeugungen bestätigen? Nicht sicher.

 ECP | Luxemburg, 08.11.2019 My co-manager Allan Jensen and myself had the opportunity to present at the IVIC International Value Investment Conference taking place in Luxembourg this week. I wanted to thank the organizer VIMCO (www.vimcolux.lu), and especially Michael Gielkens, for organizing for the third time such a great value event here in Luxembourg. During the dinner on the night before the conference, where the investment case in Berkshire Hathaway was presented, one investor made the comment that he could …

 ECP | Luxemburg, 03.10.2019 ECP präsentierte heute Donnerstagmorgen auf einer von der Dechert-Anwaltskanzlei organisierten Konferenz zum Thema „Eine Valuestrategie in einem geopolitischen Abschwung“. Ich war als Zweiter Redner am Zug nach einem ersten Vortrag des auf Kartell- und Wettbewerbsrecht spezialisierten Dechert-Partners Alec Burnside über den Brexit, der einen sehr aufschlussreichen und gut recherchierten Vortrag über die neuesten Entwicklungen der Brexit-Saga hielt. Keine leichte Aufgabe für diesen Redner, da die Haltbarkeit seiner Vortragsslides angesichts der neuesten Entwicklungen auf Stunden begrenzt war, …