SJB | Korschenbroich, 09.01.2023.
Die globalen Aktienmärkte erlebten im November eine starke Phase – der MSCI World legte um +7,76 Prozent zu und erholte sich damit von den im Oktober erreichten Tiefstständen. Die jüngsten Wirtschaftsdaten deuten auf eine Wachstumsverlangsamung in Europa und Nordamerika, zugleich aber auf rückläufige Inflationszahlen hin. In diesem verbesserten Marktumfeld legte der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) um +7,80 Prozent zu, wobei die größten Performancetreiber die Bereiche Luxusmarken, Ernährung und Robotik waren. FondsManager Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur des auf globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit und Erneuerbare Energien fokussierten Fonds und gibt Investoren einen Marktausblick.
Market Report
November was a strong month for markets. Global equities as measured by the MSCI AC World Index returned 7.76%, recovering around 14% from its midOctober lows. While recent economic data points to an investment-driven slowdown in Europe and North America, inflation is slowly softening from elevated levels while consumer spending remains relatively resilient. More dovish commentary from the Fed sparked a relief rally in risky assets pushing the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Despite ECB monetary tightening set to overtake the Fed’s monetary tightening, European equities outperformed their North American counterparts, returning 11.2% in dollar terms, more than double the North American performance. However, European performance in the month was dwarfed by Chinese performance as investors grew increasingly confident that the world’s second largest economy was slowly moving towards a reopening. The Hang Seng returned more than 26% as investors flocked back to Chinese stocks. The 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 4.33% during the month to close at 3.61%. The effect on currencies was noteworthy: the Japanese Yen jumped more than 6% against the US dollar during the month while the British pound gained more than 4%, reversing some of the heavy declines year-to-date.
Performance Analysis
The fund under performed MSCI ACWI in November based on its NAV being calculated one hour after the opening bell of the NYSE on the last day of the month. However, when comparing performance at closing bell time, the strategy was in line with the MSCI ACWI, which returned 7.8% in USD. Top contributors were Premium Brands, Clean Energy, Robotics and Nutrition while Security, SmartCity, Biotech, Health, Digital, Human, Water and Timber detracted from performance.
Portfolio-Aktivity – Over- and Underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market Outlook
Looking forward, one piece of good news is that corporate profits should hold up better than they have done during prior recessions. Companies have more pricing power and consumers still have ample excess savings, around USD 1.8 trillion for US consumers alone. Within the developed world, the US has the potential to outperform if, as we expect, Fed rate hikes come to an end and the country’s economy remains resilient. Valuations are relatively expensive but less prohibitive than they have been: the price to 12-month forward earnings ratio has moderated from a peak of 23.5 times in late 2020 and is now not far off its 10-year average of 17.5 times. In contrast, we are more worried about the prospects for the euro zone. This is where we see the most significant drop in earnings (in excess of 6%), with companies’ bottom lines hit by an economic contraction and by a stronger euro exchange rate. Emerging markets more broadly will be buoyed by weakening of the dollar and a favourable shift in growth differentials, with EM growth accelerating from in-line with developed markets this year to 2.3 percentage points higher in 2023. Good for thematic prospects is that in a period of economic stagnation investors will likely become more willing to pay a premium for companies whose own growth prospects remain strong, leading to an outperformance of the growth style over value.
Portfolio Strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Human, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
