SJB | Korschenbroich, 01.09.2022.
Die globalen Aktienmärkte vollführten im Juli eine starke Kehrtwende und legten nach den schwachen Vormonaten deutlich zu. Die grössten Kursgewinne gab es am US-Aktienmarkt, während im Bereich der einzelnen Sektoren besonders Energieaktien zu den Gewinnern gehörten. Auch Konsumaktien sowie Technologietitel zeigten sich gut erholt. In diesem freundlichen Marktumfeld entwickelte sich der Pictet Global Megatrend Selection P dy EUR (WKN A0X8JZ; ISIN LU0386885296) noch besser als seine Benchmark MSCI World und verzeichnete eine Performance von +11,92 Prozent in Euro. Aktienstratege Hans Peter Portner liefert in seinem aktuellen Monatsbericht alle Details über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Portfoliostruktur des auf globale Megatrends wie Digitalisierung, IT-Sicherheit und Erneuerbare Energien fokussierten Fonds.
Market review
Risk assets saw a strong rebound in July, after their heavy losses at the start of the year, as investors reappraised how committed central banks will remain to tightening policy in the face of economic weakness. Global equities gained 7.1% on the month in local currency terms, leaving them down just under 12% for 2022 so far. US equities were the standout performers here, with the market picking up 9.3% on the month, followed by a 7.3% jump in eurozone stocks, with other major markets largely ranging around 4%. Within sectors, energy stocks managed to post solid gains despite a 4% drop in oil prices on the month. The big winners, however, were consumer discretionary and tech stocks, which had suffered some of the heftiest losses on the year so far. Bonds also managed to reverse their downward trend by recovering some ground, gaining 2.1% on the month in local currency terms, with the US, eurozone and Swiss sovereign markets all picking up between 3% and 4%. The biggest gains were in the credit space, with European and US high-yield bonds picking up 5% and 6%, respectively. The dollar reversed its strength halfway through last month as the market priced in peak Fed hawkishness but still finished up another 1.2% versus a basket of currencies. The Japanese yen managed to claw back some lost ground while the euro remained weak. Gold dipped 2.4% to a 3% loss on the year.
Performance analysis
The strategy outperformed the MSCI ACWI, which has returned 6.98% in USD. Top contributors were Clean Energy, Robotics, Premium Brands, SmartCity, and Water while Digital, Health, Biotech, Nutrition, Timber Human, and Security detracted from performance.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
We rebalanced the portfolio during the month to reach the strategic weights of the underlying themes.
Market outlook
US and European stocks have endured a brutal 2022 so far. The multiple de-rating we have seen year-to-date is one of the steepest on record, exceeding a normal multiple compression during recessions. The macro backdrop remains challenging, with sentiment data pointing to a further slowdown not visible in hard macro data yet. Inflation and gas concerns have also prompted a wave of downward revisions of growth, increasing recession risk. However, investor positioning is already bearish and is coming off multi-year lows. The market is pricing in a lot of negativity and the risk/reward prospects should improve through H2. The Fed has recently issued more dovish commentary regarding future interest rate hikes. A temporary pause in rate hikes is seen as a positive for risk markets. We are not out of the woods yet with potential negative geopolitical surprises, but the more the market is aware of these risks, the higher the likelihood that they will be largely discounted by the market. There is a higher chance of large price swings in the current uncertain market environment, so we remain careful, but we also see this as an opportunity for longer-term investors to benefit from cheaper prices for great long-term assets.
Portfolio strategy
Global Megatrend Selection is a unique investment solution for investors looking to gain exposure to promising investment themes supported by strong secular trends. The strategy invests in a combination of Pictet’s thematic investment strategies: Biotech, Clean Energy, Digital, Health, Human, Nutrition, Premium Brands, Robotics, Security, SmartCity, Timber and Water.
