Die globalen Aktienmärkte konnten sich im Juli gut halten, da Stimulus- und Konjunkturpakete von Zentralbanken und Regierungen rund um den Globus für Optimismus bei den Anlegern sorgten. Schwach fielen hingegen die Wirtschaftszahlen aus: Mit einem BIP-Rückgang um 32,9 Prozent (annualisiert) im zweiten Quartal legte die US-Wirtschaft den stärksten Rücksetzer seit den 1940er-Jahren hin. In dieser Marktumgebung verzeichnete der Pictet Security P EUR (WKN A0LC44, ISIN LU0270904781) eine positive Kursentwicklung von +2,30 Prozent. Das aus Yves Kramer, Alexandre Mouthon und Rachele Beata bestehende Pictet Security Management Team analysiert für alle Investoren der FondsStrategie SJB Nachhaltig die jüngsten Marktentwicklungen und Portfolio-Veränderungen im Detail. Zudem thematisiert der aktuelle Marktbericht die FondsPerformance und gibt einen Ausblick auf die Aktienmärkte des Security-Sektors.
Market review
The global equity market held up well in July as stimulus from central banks and governments around the globe and largely uneventful reopening of economies raised hopes for a sustained post-pandemic recovery. Hit by the pandemic, the US economy contracted by 32.9 per cent in Q2 on annualized basis – the deepest slump since the 1940s. In response, the Fed affirmed that it would use its full range of tools to support the economy and would keep interest rates near zero for as long as necessary. Global equities took heart from the latest earnings season, where profits are down sharply but not quite as sharply as analysts had expected. Sectors most exposed to the economic cycle, such as materials and consumer discretionary, fared particularly well. Energy remained the notable laggard, finishing July in the red. Regarding the security universe, IT Security Products, Security Services and Physical Security Products were all positive over the month.
Performance analysis
The strategy significantly outperformed the MSCI AC world over the month, with all three segments, and almost all our stocks, contributing positively to the fund absolute performance. The performance of Physical Security Products was mainly driven by the life science and access control names. Security Services was up on the month, with our data centres and fintech being the main contributors. Within the IT Security Products pocket, cybersecurity names continue to perform strongly.
Portfolio activity – overweightings & underweightings
Over the month, our trading activity led to a slight increase in IT Security Products, a decrease in Security Services and a stable allocation in Physical Security. In the latter, after a very strong set of earnings from our life sciences names, we have started to take some money out of the table while at the same time keeping our bets in the industrial safety space as our companies came out with stronger 2Q earnings and stronger 2H outlook, even if remaining prudent in the current Covid environment. In IT Security, we continued to increase exposure to specific cybersecurity companies while, in Security Services, we have been more of a seller in the business services segment. Over the month, we bought two new names, one in the Physical Security segment and the other in IT Security Products.
Market outlook
Given the persistent uncertainty surrounding the current state of the economy, we believe that securing the critical infrastructures of countries, protecting citizens’ integrity and ensuring the ability of businesses to meet their objectives are a top priorities. We therefore remain confident about the fund’s ability to outpace the global equity market on earnings and cash-flow growth over the next few years, as stricter regulation (such as PSD2, GDPR) is likely to remain a key driver for security going forward; and IT systems and cybersecurity remain a priority for governments and companies. We are therefore confident that the fund is an attractive investment opportunity to capture a long-term trend with strong fundamentals and good diversification properties.
Portfolio strategy
This year, governments and central banks have certainly delivered, pulling the global economy out of a pandemic-caused slump with record-breaking volumes of stimulus. However, it is too early to break out the champagne – coronavirus cases around the world are still rising and corporate earnings are in free-fall. Although a key positive development has been Europe’s newly agreed EUR 750 billion recovery fund. Encouragingly, 70 per cent of it is expected to be spent over the next two years. China remains ahead in terms of the extent of its recovery, which, along with a weaker dollar, should be supportive for emerging markets. In general, we think that the monetary and fiscal stimulus pledged across the globe should be enough to offset the uncertainty related to the pandemic. However, daily indicators, such as credit card use and traffic congestion, suggest that on a global level activity is improving slowly, potentially reflecting a fresh increase in Covid-19 cases. The markets have discounted so much good news that valuations are looking rather stretched. Global stocks have gained over 40 per cent since March. With such a backdrop, we maintain a defensive view with the portfolio as the Security Services exposure is around 40%. We will continue to be opportunistic by raising exposure to cyclical names when appropriate.
Pictet Security Management Team
Yves Kramer
Alexandre Mouthon
Rachele Beata
