Pictet | Frankfurt, 07.07.2016.
The UK’s vote to leave the EU has sent shockwaves through financial markets. The political upheaval unleashed by the unexpected referendum result and the ensuing rise in market volatility will surely weigh on the global economy.
But there are silver linings to the Brexit clouds – alert to the need to contain the fallout from UK’s landmark decision, policymakers are sure to act, relaxing fiscal austerity and maintaining a loose monetary policy.
Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren,
anbei erhalten Sie den den monatlichen Investor-Outlook von Pictet Asset Management, der institutionellen Einheit der Pictet-Gruppe, mit dem Titel
“Silver linings to Brexit clouds”. Luca Paolini, Chef-Stratege bei Pictet Asset Management in London, leitet daraus folgende Allokationsschritte ab:
– global asset classes:
We increase our exposure to global stocks to overweight as we expect policymakers to act decisively in the wake of the Brexit referendum
– equity region and styles:
We remain overweight Europe and Japan on valuation grounds and upgrade UK stocks to overweight
– equity sectors:
We maintain a cyclical tilt via an overweight in materials and consumer discretionary stocks
– fixed income:
We upgrade US and EUR high yield bonds and go underweight the Japanese yen
Weitere Informationen finden Sie in beigefügtem “Barometer” sowie dem begleitenden Pressetext. Ein Foto von Luca Paolinie ist ebenfalls beigefügt. Für Rückfragen stehen wir selbstverständlich gerne zur Verfügung.
Mit besten Grüßen,
Oliver MÖLLER
Leiter Unternehmenskommunikation
Tel. +49 69 79 5009 30
omoeller@pictet.com
Brexit’s silver lining is emerging – Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management
London, 7th July 2016
“The UK’s vote to leave the EU has sent shockwaves through financial markets but there are silver linings to the Brexit clouds,” says Pictet Asset Management’s chief strategist Luca Paolini.
“We now expect the US Federal Reserve to leave interest rates on hold, at least until next year, offering substantial support to riskier asset classes.
“Brexit may also encourage governments in both Europe and elsewhere to push through economic stimulus measures to better insure against shocks.
“This, coupled with the fact that stock valuations are now at more attractive levels than they were a few weeks ago, has led us to upgrade equities to an overweight from neutral and to stay underweight bonds.
“We have upgraded UK stocks within the globally-exposed FTSE 100 index to overweight. At the same time, however, and as an insurance policy against any further bouts of volatility, we keep our overweight stance in gold.
“Fear over what Brexit might hold in store for the UK economy has seen a number of domestically-exposed companies such as banks, homebuilders and real estate punished by investors. On reflection, however, we believe the overall market is not as vulnerable to political turmoil as it would appear.
“UK stocks are very diverse, and the government may look to enact some business-friendly reforms to reassure investors post-Brexit, including a potential cut in the corporate tax rate that would be an additional support for UK companies.
“The turbulence triggered by the UK referendum has taken the valuations of Japanese and European stocks to levels that are at odds with fundamentals. Both markets stand to benefit from monetary and fiscal stimulus from the Japanese and European authorities.
“The ECB has said it stands ready to provide additional liquidity to mitigate the impact of the vote and shore up the currency bloc. The strength of the Yen may force a policy response that will probably take the form of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
“How central banks react to Brexit will have a major bearing on world bond markets and currencies over the coming months, with investors particularly focused on the Fed.
“The markets had been pricing in two US rate increases for the second half of 2016. Following the referendum, investors started to discount no move until well into 2017 or even 2018. At the same time, the Fed’s forward guidance is likely to become more dovish.
“Although the impact of any new measures in isolation would probably be modest, a coordinated policy response has the potential to trigger a strong rally in higher-yielding bonds.
“For now, we expect the Fed’s dovish tilt to drive a further flattening of the yield curve as it feeds demand for long dated US government bonds. So we remain overweight US Treasuries and are extending the duration of our portfolio. We are less enthusiastic about other developed market sovereign debt.
“A more dovish monetary policy, however, is supportive of credit, particularly corporate high yield. We are lifting our exposure to US high yield bonds and are also shifting to an overweight on European high yield debt from neutral.
“On the other hand, European investment grade credit looks fully valued – investors are already long the market in response to the ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme.
“The shift in the Fed’s thinking is likely to be positive for emerging market debt. While we remain overweight emerging market dollar bonds, for now we stick to our neutral stance on emerging market local currency debt, as developing world currencies could prove volatile in a shifting political landscape.”
-Ends-
Notes to the Editor
The Pictet Group
Founded in 1805 in Geneva, the Pictet Group is one of the premier independent asset and wealth management specialists in Europe, with GBP304 billion in assets under management and custody at 31stt March 2016. The Pictet Group is owned and managed by seven partners with principles of ownership and succession that have remained unchanged since foundation.
Based in Geneva, the Pictet Group employs more than 3,700 staff. The Group has offices in the following financial centres: Amsterdam, Barcelona, Basel, Brussels, Dubai, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Lausanne, London, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Montreal, Nassau, Paris, Rome, Singapore, Turin, Taipei, Tel Aviv, Osaka, Tokyo, Verona and Zurich.
Pictet Asset Management includes all the operating subsidiaries and divisions of the Pictet Group that carry out institutional asset management and fund management. Pictet Asset Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
At 31st March 2016, Pictet Asset Management managed GBP108 billion in assets, invested in equity and bond markets worldwide. Pictet AM has seventeen business development centres worldwide, extending from London, Brussels, Geneva, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Paris and Zurich via Dubai, Hong Kong, Taipei, Osaka, Tokyo and Singapore to Montreal.
